HomeMy WebLinkAbout[05] Hotel Study CITY Oft ST.JOSEPH EDA Agenda Item 5
MEETING DATE: September 18,2018
AGENDA ITEM: Hotel Study
PREVIOUS EDA ACTION: The EDA authorized the commission of a hotel study to help identify the
support for locating one in St.Joseph. HVS was retained for the study.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION: Tanya Pierson will be at the EDA meeting to present and
discuss the Hotel Study.
BUDGET/FISCAL IMPACT:
ATTACHMENTS: Hotel Study
REQUESTED BOARD ACTION: Informational
HVS STUDY RESULTS
Hotel Supply and Demand Study
ST. JOSEPH, MINNESOTA
July2018
HVS Study Results Selected Tables
Project: Hotel Supply and Demand Study
Location: Specific location to be determined St. Joseph, Minnesota
Month of Research/Report:July 2018
FIGURE 11 HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS (STR)
Average Daily Available Room Occupied Room Average
YearRoom CountNightsChangeNightsChangeOccupancyRateChangeRevPARChange
20081,131412,815Γ 236,730Γ 57.3%$83.12Γ $47.67Γ
20091,179430,5134.3%228,349(3.5)%53.082.52(0.7)%43.77(8.2)%
20101,294472,2169.7252,48610.653.582.990.644.371.4
20111,292471,580(0.1)261,1003.455.485.162.647.156.3
20121,292471,5800.0268,0822.756.888.183.650.136.3
20131,292471,488(0.0)283,3455.760.190.262.454.248.2
20141,291471,337(0.0)286,3931.160.895.826.258.227.3
20151,292471,5800.1288,9560.961.398.843.260.574.0
20161,312478,9301.6301,3314.362.9103.324.565.017.3
20171,322482,5300.8295,081(2.1)61.2104.541.263.93(1.7)
YeartoDate Through May
20171,322199,622Γ 118,090Γ 59.2%$104.80Γ $62.00Γ
20181,322199,6220.0%123,3624.5%61.8107.943.0%66.717.6%
Average Annual Compounded Change:
2008 20114.5%3.3%0.8%(0.4)%
2011 20170.42.13.55.2
NumberYearYear
Hotels Included in SampleClassof RoomsAffiliatedOpened
Best Western Plus Kelly InnUpper Midscale Class229Apr 2011Feb 1977
Holiday Inn & Suites St CloudUpper Midscale Class257May 1977May 1977
Rodeway Inn St JosephEconomy Class27Apr 2017Dec 1986
Quality Inn Saint CloudMidscale Class63Feb 2009Jun 1987
Courtyard Saint CloudUpscale Class103Jul 2015Mar 1990
Fairfield Inn & Suites St CloudUpper Midscale Class54Apr 1992Apr 1992
Country Inn & Suites St Cloud WestUpper Midscale Class93May 1996May 1996
AmericInn Lodge & Sutes St CloudMidscale Class45Feb 1997Feb 1997
Holiday Inn Express & Suites St CloudUpper Midscale Class113May 1999May 1999
AmericInn Lodge & Suites SartellMidscale Class54Aug 1999Aug 1999
GrandStay Residential Suites St CloudUpper Midscale Class53Nov 2000Nov 2000
Country Inn & Suites St Cloud EastUpper Midscale Class67Mar 2005Mar 2005
Homewood Suites St CloudUpscale Class87Sep 2009Sep 2009
Hampton Inn Suites St CloudUpper Midscale Class77Oct 2009Oct 2009
Total1,322
Source: STR
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
1
Hotel Supply and Demand Study ΑSt. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 12 SEASONALITY
2008200920102011201220132014201520162017
High Season June, July, August, September, October
Occupancy62.3%56.3%58.0%60.1%62.6%66.1%66.3%68.4%70.5%66.3%
Average Rate$82.58$81.13$82.26$85.34$88.12$90.24$96.60$99.13$104.90$104.94
RevPAR51.4245.6747.7151.3155.1959.6564.0067.7673.9869.53
Shoulder Season March, April, May
Occupancy58.6%55.2%54.2%57.1%59.7%61.4%62.4%61.8%63.8%63.2%
Average Rate$83.81$83.61$83.06$83.74$88.72$91.11$95.66$99.43$102.11$105.20
RevPAR49.0946.1245.0647.8052.9455.9559.6661.4565.1166.53
Low Season January, February, November, December
Occupancy50.1%47.5%47.1%48.0%47.3%51.4%52.5%51.8%52.5%53.1%
Average Rate$83.35$83.68$84.07$86.16$87.77$89.53$94.71$97.83$101.71$103.28
RevPAR41.7939.7439.5941.3541.5346.0449.7550.7253.3654.79
Source: Smith Travel Research
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
2
Hotel Supply and Demand StudyΑSt. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 13 AVERAGE DAILY OCCUPANCY PATTERNS BY MONTH
MonthSundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal Month
Jun 1740.3%75.1%87.0%80.1%60.6%73.8%80.2%70.8%
Jul 1740.156.765.169.355.274.576.762.0
Aug 1740.162.673.474.759.868.683.466.4
Sep 1737.355.974.872.568.474.683.067.5
Oct 1733.159.870.778.367.676.275.764.8
Nov 1725.348.756.955.155.972.359.453.5
Dec 1742.055.851.456.646.855.663.253.1
Jan 1830.242.650.757.553.361.974.252.7
Feb 1835.757.166.360.455.477.781.362.0
Mar 1832.661.981.577.352.673.578.065.6
Apr 1835.763.974.771.460.084.792.967.8
May 1828.848.475.880.461.260.964.461.2
Average35.3%57.3%68.9%69.3%58.1%71.0%76.0%62.2%
Source: STR
FIGURE 14 AVERAGE DAILY ADR PATTERNS BY MONTH
MonthSundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal Month
Jun 17$96.54$102.32$103.08$101.65$98.84$113.33$115.05$105.25
Jul 1793.2397.5397.8996.4294.56110.46113.35101.79
Aug 1797.9199.94101.71100.3098.50109.30112.66103.26
Sep 17100.3498.79102.07103.51108.17119.20121.98109.85
Oct 1795.3997.87102.82103.27102.10113.52111.76104.42
Nov 1793.7397.4099.50100.09101.86110.55110.05102.95
Dec 17100.94101.0198.3796.0295.49105.06112.03102.16
Jan 1896.50101.74101.5999.7198.13111.26115.30104.41
Feb 18109.54104.12103.82103.79103.88125.92127.96112.81
Mar 1898.62105.09105.60105.6099.49113.46115.37107.60
Apr 1898.26102.11105.16104.78101.14119.55123.22109.24
May 1897.63103.10107.31104.98101.08109.78110.31105.52
Average$98.24$100.89$102.75$101.87$100.46$113.84$116.19$105.83
Source: STR
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
3
Hotel Supply and Demand Study Α St. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 15 COMPETITORS Α OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Est. Segmentation Estimated 2016Estimated 2017
Weighted Weighted
Total Annual Annual
Number of Competitive Room Room
PropertyRoomsLevel CountOcc.Average RateRevPARCountOcc.Average RateRevPAR
Rodeway Inn Saint Joseph2740%10%50%100%2755 60%$60 $65$35 $402760 65%$60 $65$35 $40
Homewood Suites by
87655301008775 80125 13095 1008775 80125 13095 100
Hilton Saint Cloud
Hampton Inn & Suites
776010301007770 75125 13090 957765 70125 13085 90
Saint Cloud
Holiday Inn & Suites Saint
25750203010025755 60105 11060 6525750 55110 11555 60
Cloud
Courtyard by Marriott St.
10350252510010365 70120 12580 8510370 75115 12080 85
Cloud
Holiday Inn Express Saint
1135554010011365 70105 11070 7511365 70100 10565 70
Cloud
Remaining
65850104010064855 6090 9555 6065855 6095 10055 60
Midscale/Upscale Hotels
Totals/Averages1,32252%12%36%100%1,31262.8%$103.56$65.021,32261.3%$104.58$64.06
* Specific occupancy and average rate data was utilized in our analysis, but is presented in ranges in the above table for the purposes of confidentiality.
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
4
Hotel Supply and Demand StudyΑSt. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 16 NEW SUPPLY IN GREATER AREA
Total
Weighted
Room
Number Competitive
Estimated Opening
Count
of Rooms Level
Proposed PropertyDeveloperDevelopment Stage
Date
Proposed Residence Inn9610096September 1, 2018Lamont CompaniesUnder Construction
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn9910099November 1, 2018Lamont CompaniesUnder Construction
Proposed Economy Hotel East St CloudTBDΓ Γ TBDLamont CompaniesRumored
Totals/Averages195195
FIGURE 17 ACCOMMODATEDROOMNIGHT DEMAND Α 2017
Marketwide
Accommodated Percentage
Market SegmentDemandof Total
Commercial154,14952%
Meeting and Group35,94312
Leisure105,47036
Total295,562100%
FIGURE 18 TRAFFIC COUNTS AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME
YearHwy 2 at 94Hwy 3 W of 75Hwy 3 E of 75I94 W of 75I94 E of 75
201110,00012,10015,70041,50023,000
20137,50014,70017,90038,00023,200
20157,50014,70017,90036,50024,300
20178,00014,80019,40038,50025,500
Source: MN DOT
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
5
Hotel Supply and Demand Study Α St. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 19 DEMAND SURVEY DATA
y
d
a
y
k
ea
e
t
ot
d
e
s
S
e
/
Msdf
l
Wi
/
o
aU
a
sf
tn
osh
P
l
ot
N
s
e
seg
yt
c
g
a
n
i
ao
v
e
r
e
CompanyD
ASHPL
Copart Avon0
Midsota Manufacturing35Quarterly (March 40 rooms)M, T, WHoliday Inn$951
Minnesota Home Improvement0
Manions Wholesale Building Supply2Steady (100 rooms for 3 nts in March)T, W, ThBest Western, AmericInn72/901 nt; 3 nts for March conf
Columbia Gear20SteadyT, W, ThHoliday Inn, Hampton, Courtyard by Marriott10511012
Borgert0
Blather Energy<5SteadyT, W, Thseveral in St. Cloud10012
Army Reserve3036SteadyTh, F, S or F, SHoliday Inn Express9323
Rolling Ridge Event Center50MayOctF, SHoliday Inn Express; Hampton, Homewood, Holiday Innunknown12
CentraCare0
St. Ben's Monastary0
St Ben's Board of Trustees (SE)8.3Quarterly W, TAbbey, Homewood, Courtyard1392
St. Ben's Alumni Office12Seasonal/major eventsF, SaHomewood Suites, Holiday Inn8010012
St. Ben's (MB)2SteadyF, SaSJU Abbey, Estates, Hampton, Country Inn7012
St. Ben's (KB)12School year (not MayAug)SunWedHomewood, Hampton, Holiday, or SJU/EstatesN/A12
St. Ben's (KS)N/AApril onlyMFHomewood, Country Inn West1301
St. Ben's (TD)2School year (not MayAug)F, SaHomewood1501
St John's (DK)10Seasonal/major eventsvariesAbbey, St. Cloud hotels751001
The following table illustrates these room nights on a monthly basis.
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
6
Hotel Supply and Demand StudyΑSt. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 110DEMAND SURVEY MONTHLY ROOM NIGHTS
MonthSundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal MonthAvg RN/day% filled
Jan 2713505348402136.922%
Feb 2213252848401585.620%
March 242113125128484049816.152%
Apr 2713505348402137.124%
May 2013252898502167.022%
June 0013252898982628.729%
July 05135053989831710.233%
Aug 0013252898982628.527%
Sept 22132528981002688.930%
Oct 271350539810032310.434%
Nov2213252848401585.318%
Dec2213252848401585.116%
Average2621424573652548.327%
Source: Demand interviews
Green highlight indicates strong periods of leisure and group demand from eventsheld on campus, which has not been factored in. A large portion of this
demand stays on both campuses, at reduced rates ($2535/pp/nt) and includes guestsunder 18 years of age.
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
7
Hotel Supply and Demand StudyΑSt. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 111 ATTENDANCE AT CSB/SJU EVENTS
College of Saint Benedict
Estimated
Estimated Number Estimated Groups that Average
of EventsAttendanceUsed Housing Housing %Attendance
FY14201 36,883 3517%183.5
FY15242 30,886 4719%127.6
FY16260 37,358 4417%143.7
FY17227 29,661 3013%130.7
FY18Data not complied until the end of August
*Housing is typically available for 11 weeks during the summer
Saint John's University
Accommodate 5,00015,000 patrons per year at events, many of which stay on campus (May 21Aug 3)
Summer Housing 4,000 to 5,000 guests, staying an average of 3 nights. 6070% are under 18
Homecoming Mainly at SJU, estimated number of guests at CSB = 150
Graduation estimated number of guests = 2,500
Parent's Weekend estimated number of guests = 1,320
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
8
Hotel Supply and Demand Study Α St. Joseph, MN
FIGURE 112 ENROLLMENT AT CSB/SJU
Region/StateCSBSJUTotalCSBSJUTotalCSBSJUTotalCSBSJUTotalCSBSJUTotal
Northeast112031112839132538142741152944
Connecticut101202213213101
Maine000000000000000
Massachusetts0002353255386511
New Hampshire011011033011011
New Jersey2151711415314172182011415
New York84125813347325459
Pennsylvania000123213224336
Rhode Island000000000000011
Vermont000000000000000
South273865274875394786404989396099
Alabama011112101101112
Arkansas011033000000000
Delaware000000000000000
D.C.000000000000000
Florida022134268291121618
Georgia101000000000011
Kentucky011011000101101
Louisiana033044156156268
Maryland011022134033022
Mississippi000000000000000
North Carolina213224134101011
Oklahoma000011011000000
South Carolina000000000000000
Tennessee011044022011011
Texas222547222244312556332760312859
Virginia224156224145246
West Virginia000000000000000
Midwest1,7981,6123,4091,7891,5813,3701,7131,4513,1641,7281,4733,2011,7201,5023,222
Illinois111728102434112031132235142440
Indiana134134066145055
Iowa25174220204021133422931171128
Kansas46106511527426617
Michigan66126410347257246
Minnesota1,6151,4503,0651,6191,4183,0371,5621,3102,8721,5761,3422,9181,5681,3612,929
Missouri66125510538336538
Nebraska182543131629131528111324111122
North Dakota201333241539201636261642201434
Ohio437437213112000
South Dakota195242182920123218927181230
Wisconsin6861129606012051491005147985756113
West 9910019992125217851182038412621084136220
Alaska7101781119481266127613
Arizona4812211131894610369
California3155863060903263943568103277198
Colorado241136241842231740201838221941
Hawaii101000112011011
Idaho213236236134246
Montana448448224336538
Nevada213112213325639
New Mexico000022000011011
Oregon971698179918591441014
Utah110119110617325123
Washington437369369461071017
Wyoming000000000011000
Outside US1171012181101142149310219592791717889167
Total2,0511,8713,9222,0191,8963,9151,9431,7433,6861,9581,7543,7121,9361,8163,752
% from Midwest87.7%86.2%86.9%88.6%83.4%86.1%88.2%83.2%85.8%88.3%84.0%86.2%88.8%82.7%85.9%
% from Minnesota78.7%77.5%78.1%80.2%74.8%77.6%80.4%75.2%77.9%80.5%76.5%78.6%81.0%74.9%78.1%
Source: CSB/SJU Institutional Research Tenth Day Extract
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
9
Hotel Supply and Demand Study Α St. Joseph, MN
Based on our review of the market dynamics, a low level of room night demand
exists in the St. Joseph area during seven months of the year. Stronger demand is
generated in the area during summer months, as well as on weekends; however,
part of this demand is accommodated by oncampus housing. Given that someof
this demand is under 18 years of age and pays a low per person room rate, it is our
opinion thata portionofthis demand would not utilize a local hotel if one were
available.
While St. Cloud has large conventions, trade shows,and youth sports tournaments
that overflow into the St. Joseph area, roughly 200 new rooms are under
construction in Waite Park. Additionally, the annual market wide occupancy in St.
Cloud has averaged 61.2% over the last five years, which is below the national
average of 64.7% for the same period. Considering the existing and new supply,
and based on our review of the market, it is our opinion that there is limited
annual demand in the immediate area, and it would be difficult to support the
construction cost of a hotel in St. Joseph at this time.
July2018 HVS Study Results Selected Tables
10
Hotel Supply and Demand Study Α St. Joseph, MN